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Top ten
predictions
1)
Platform Wars
According
to Anderson, 2010 will be the year of Platform Wars, a heightening
in the battle between netbooks, mobiles and emerging cloud computing
standards. Netbooks are tipped to continue selling in high numbers.
2)
Operating System Wars
Will 2010
be the year of operating system wars? Windows 7 battles it out with MacOS,
Linux, Symbian, Android, Chrome OS, Nokia Maemo 5. Anderson predicts
that the PC-centric platform of Windows 7 clears the way for other
contenders in the mobile operating system market place.
3)
All content goes mobile
All
content becomes available online with TV and movie, in
particular, breaking free of their traditional business models. Programmes
will soon be available to watch live on phones. For a price, of
course.
4)
MobileApps and Mobile Content drive MicroPayments
Anderson
predicts a move from niche to mainstream payment models with payment
for content to be split along age lines. He guesses those aged 35
and above will pay, whilst those below 35 will not.
5)
The Phone vs. the PC
‘A split
along two paths’ is the vision for 2010. Anderson says the Apple
environment offers a fully integrated user experience with poor
back-end (mail and calendar) integration. Conversely, Windows offers
good back-end integration but with a poorer user experience. He says
the phone is now the most interesting computer platform and feels it
is driving innovation.
6)
Cloud catastrophe
A disaster
this year will limit the growth of the cloud by heightening security
concerns and impacting on business trust.
7)
A chasm opens between Consumer and Enterprise
Apple,
Google and most Asian hardware companies will stay focused on
consumers whilst Dell, IBM, Cisco, and Microsoft remain on the side
of enterprise, governments and administration. HP will straddle
both. Until 2010, the talk was all about unifying consumer and
enterprise. Now, talk will be about their division.
8)
Microsoft loses in its consumer play
Except for
gaming, 2010 may spell Game Over for Microsoft in the consumer
market. This will pave the way for the most robust and exciting
change artists to make their name.
9)
News media will shift to the subscription model
For those
who survive in the online news media market, there will be a move,
in whole or in part, back to traditional business models. (Maybe
along the lines suggested in number 4).
10)
Remote data meets real life
Anderson
predicts that connecting remote data to people and things in real
time situation will lead to a series of exciting new devices and
applications. Some of the possibilities he cites include
recipe-driven shopping and self-guided tours by mobile phone. |
